Euromonitor's analysts say this perfect storm of challenges and uncertainties continue to impact demand and discretionary spending for luxury and online consumers, including those buying gifts, experiences, alcohol, and chocolate for special occasions, but there are good reasons why retailers remain hopeful.

Chocolate forever popular and a favorite for self-love with consumers 

Carl Quash III, head of packaged foods and snacks at Euromonitor International, said that gone are the days when Valentine's Day was meant only for couples. Today, more than half of Americans are either single, divorced, or widowed, and globally that figure is 53%. In the future it's expected to stay way meaning more opportunities for self-love/self-treating or even non-romantic treat sharing. 

Hershey's, Lindt, and Reese’s are the big three in the seasonal chocolate market, and combined they account for around 20% of global sales. 

"I'm seeing interesting responses to the Valentine's Day innovations this year. Namely, the Reese's heart-shaped chocolates—which consumers have been cheekily buzzing about online that the shape resembles something entirely different. I've also seen smaller packs from premium chocolate brand Ghirardelli—really executing on relevant dimensions of affordability and healthy treating, yet still keeping indulgence intact," says Quash.

"The challenges with cocoa and sugar supplies and costs are expected to contribute to seasonal chocolate price growth and thus sales in the years to come. In 2024, we're expecting global seasonal chocolate prices to grow around 3.5%.”  

Online sales expected to be up this Valentine’s Day 

Bob Hoyler, industry manager for retail and ecommerce at Euromonitor International, said that although it had eased a bit from the lofty heights of 2022, inflation remained high in many of the world’s most important retail markets in February 2023. 

“With high prices contributing to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, many consumers ratioed their spending during the Valentine’s Day holiday in 2023. Towards the end of 2023, however, as inflation has continued to ease, consumer confidence has started to pick back up, especially in North America and Europe. 

“With consumers feeling a bit more positive about the economy, the Valentine’s Day holiday in 2024 is expected to be a more encouraging one for retailers than the previous year."