As Easter approaches, consumers may be paying more for their chocolate-filled baskets this year. Chocolate prices have seen a 17% hike in the past two years in the U.S., mirroring similar increases globally, driven by rising costs of cocoa and other key inputs. Meanwhile, sugar prices are seeing a decline at the beginning of the year. 

See insights from analysts and specialists at The Smart Cube about the cocoa and sugar price outlook for 2024 below, and what it may mean for real-time investors as well as consumers: 

Sugar – Kanica Goel, senior analyst:

• Sugar prices are projected to retreat from the highs reached in H2 2023 amid improving supply prospects 
• Expected favorable weather and higher sugarcane diversion towards sugar production in Brazil (from current 48% to 51% in MY 2024–25) may increase sugar supply
• India capped the use of sugar syrup in ethanol production in 2024 (~60% lower than the past year) augmenting sugar supply
• Lower-than-expected global sugar deficit in MY 2023–24 may push down the prices

Cocoa – Nidhi Jain, specialist:

• Cocoa prices have been elevated amid continued supply concerns in key cocoa producing regions – Ivory Coast and Ghana – due to spread of swollen shoot virus and black pod disease in the cocoa plantation of these regions
• Stronger-than-usual Harmattan winds since late December 2023 in Ivory coast have caused dryness and negatively impact yields for mid-cocoa crop
• Cocoa bean arrival at Ivory Coast ports declined 36% Y-o-Y from October 1, 2023–January 28, 2024 as water logging due to excessive rains in H2 2023 in the region created logistic issues and delayed cocoa bean drying Ivory Coast halted forward sales of cocoa for MY2024/25 and mid-crop forward sales for MY2023/24 amid constrained production estimates
• However, price rise may be restricted due to demand rationing amid record high cocoa prices; as per the grindings data released during mid-January, cocoa grindings in the EU, the U.S., and Asia fell 2.5%, 3% and 8.5% Y-o-Y, respectively, in Q4 2023