A fundamental shift is occurring in the global baked goods aisle as consumer demand for functional health benefits reshapes a category traditionally driven by indulgence, according to a new report from Innova Market Insights commissioned by the Almond Board of California¹. The study confirms that while flavor is the top consumer driver, significant health concerns are creating an opportunity for ingredients that can deliver on both taste and wellness.  

The global bakery market is seeing steady innovation, led by the dynamic sweet biscuit and cookie category, the report says. Geographically, Europe leads in overall bakery launches, while the Middle East & Africa (MEA) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) are the fastest-growing regions. Among key countries analyzed, the U.S. and France lead in innovation volume, while Morocco demonstrates the most rapid growth. The report notes that while almonds currently play a niche role (6% of launches), their strong relevance in the high-growth cookie and biscuit sector positions them as a key ingredient for future development.  

The report finds that health is the number one barrier to consumption in the baked goods category. This has created a powerful demand for “healthier indulgence,” with today’s consumers actively seeking products that offer benefits beyond basic nutrition. The top trends shaping the bakery aisle include:  

• Powerhouse protein and satiety: With three in five consumers actively adding protein to their diets, the demand for satisfying, protein-rich baked goods is growing. Almonds deliver 6 g of plant-based protein per ounce, along with healthy fats and fiber, a combination that supports satiety and aligns with consumer interest in weight management.  
• Gut health hub: Gut health is a priority for 59% of consumers, who view it as essential to their overall wellbeing. Almonds provide 4 g of fiber per ounce, enhancing bakery items and supporting digestive health, with key growth markets for this trend including Italy, Morocco, and France.  
• Healthier indulgence and clean label: Consumers are not abandoning indulgence; they are redefining it. Thirty-four percent say an indulgent experience means “healthier enjoyment,” seeking out products with natural ingredients and clean-label formulations.  
• Authentic plant-based: Plant-based growth is accelerating, particularly in cakes, sweet biscuits, and cookies. Germany currently leads the plant-based baked goods market, while Italy and Morocco are key growth drivers.  

“This new study shows that creating the next generation of successful baked goods means leveraging functional ingredients that also deliver a complete sensory experience,” says Harbinder Maan, associate director, trade stewardship, Almond Board of California. “The versatility of an ingredient like almonds offers a powerful solution, providing everything from a satisfying crunch of whole almonds to the satiety-supporting combination of protein, fat, and fiber in almond flour.”  

Crucially, the report specifies how different ingredient forms can be leveraged. In the high-growth sweet biscuit and cookie category, ingredients that provide textural crunch are leading innovation, while versatile flours that enable high-protein and gluten-free formulations are driving overall category growth (+10.4% CAGR). As bakery aisles and counters continue to transform, the report concludes that almonds are set to play an even more crucial role, helping brands innovate and meet the demands of the modern, health-conscious consumer.  

Methodology  

Analysis was conducted using the Innova New Products Database, covering a time frame from January 2021 to December 2025. It focused on the “Baked Good” category in key markets, including the U.S., France, Italy, Germany, Morocco, and Mexico.  

¹ Innova Market Insights x Almond Board of California, Almonds and Baked Goods, February 2026   

Related: Almond consumption improves gut, cardiovascular health