The frozen breakfast handheld category brought in $2.9 billion of that total, with a 0.5% loss in sales. Hillshire Brands ($1.6 billion, -1.8% in sales) led the pack, followed by private label, with $424 million and a healthy 14.3% uptick, and General Mills brought in $219 million, with a 0.6% increase.

The frozen waffles subcategory also showed decline (-5.5%) with $1.2 billion in sales. Kellanova, maker of Eggo, was responsible for $874.6 million of that number, with a small 2.7% decline. Private label was also not immune to decline ($170.4 million, -11.2%), and neither was Kodiak Cakes, bringing in $122.5 million with a loss of 8.3%.

Things looked better for the cold cereal category, coming in with $10.9 billion in sales and a slight 0.8% decrease. General Mills, although experiencing losses of 4.1%, brought in $3.3 billion, and WK Kellogg Co., part of the former Kellogg Company, took in $2.8 billion, although also experiencing a loss of 3.4%. Post Consumer Brands took in $1.9 billion, a loss of 2%. The hot cereal category unfortunately didn’t fare any better, bringing in $1.9 billion in sales and experiencing a 7.1% loss in revenue. Kodiak Cakes did shine in the category, however, with $97.8 million and a healthy increase of 19.7% in sales.

The pancake mixes category was a small bright spot, bringing in $851.8 million with a modest 2.1% uptick in sales. Kodiak Cakes led the subcategory, with $181.1 million and an 11% increase, and The Krusteaz Co. took in $144.9 million, with a 7.7% increase. Quaker Oats Co., part of PepsiCo, brought in $128.2 million, but with a decrease of 14.3% in sales.

Looking back

“Consumers are increasingly shifting away from conventional, lower-nutrition products in favor of options that deliver enhanced nutritional value and functional benefits,” says Aaron Robinson, senior director of brand management, Kodiak. “One clear indicator of this shift is the proliferation of protein claims across nearly every grocery aisle—likely influenced in part by the growing use of weight loss medications and supplements. Demand for higher-protein products is at an all-time high.”

“At the same time, consumers are becoming more mindful of sugar and processed ingredients. There’s a clear move toward products with lower sugar or no added sugar, along with a growing preference for real, clean ingredients. Convenience is also playing a key role in purchasing decisions. Health-forward, grab-and-go options are resonating strongly with today’s shoppers, making them clear winners in the evolving breakfast market,” he elaborates.

Ayeshah Abuelhiga, founder, Mason Dixie Foods, says that consumers are seeing authenticity and transparency from brands more than ever.

“A study by Label Insight found that 94% of consumers are likely to be loyal to a brand that offers complete transparency, and approximately 75% willing to pay more for products from a brand they believe to be genuine,” she says. “We go through a pain-staking process of reviewing product and ingredient specifications down to origin, replacing non-natural ingredients with natural alternatives, simplifying ingredient panels by asking why things in are in the food, and most importantly, tasting to ensure we have the best taste we can get without adulterating the food.”

The brand recently debuted a line of single-serve, skillet-cooked breakfast burritos, in four flavors; each includes 14-15 g of protein and can be prepared in under two minutes. “All of [our] burritos are made with nitrate/nitrite-free meats, New Mexico Certified hatch green chiles, cage-free certified real eggs, and no preservatives. The biggest difference is taste—when fresh ingredients are batched cooked together, you don’t get the watery, soggy, burrito that you find today in most freezers. We put culinary technique first,” says Abuelhiga. “Plus, they deliver on real, authentic taste with the unique addition of certified Hatch Green Chile. They are as close to restaurant-made as you can get.”

Hannah Barnstable, founder and CEO, Seven Sundays notes the demand for ingredient transparency and responsibly sourced, nutrient-dense foods continues to shape the breakfast category: “Millennial parents, in particular, are reading labels more closely and seeking out products that are free from refined sugars, artificial dyes, and seed oils. Consumers are also gravitating towards nostalgic, comfort-forward flavors, which has been something we’ve leaned into with all of our products since the company’s inception. Familiar tastes, done in a clean and modern way, have really helped us connect with both parents and kids.”

Like many other brands, Seven Sundays faced challenges with supply chain disruptions and rising ingredient costs. “For us, the bigger challenge has been staying true to our sourcing values while scaling. We work with some incredible farms and suppliers who share our commitment to sustainability, and we won’t compromise on that. It takes extra effort, but it’s worth it,” Barnstable expands.

The brand launched its Little Crispies cereal in February, featuring U.S.-grown sorghum, and its Oat Granola line in April this year. “Sorghum is underutilized in the U.S. food system, and we saw an opportunity to bring it to the forefront in a way that’s never been done before. While most cereals rely on processed rice or corn, Little Crispies are made with flaked sorghum, lightly coated in coconut oil, real Dutch cocoa or cinnamon, and a touch of pure maple syrup or wildflower honey,” she elaborates. “What I love most is that both products reflect where we see breakfast going: cleaner, simpler, and more flexible. They are no longer tied to just a specific time of day or even a bowl and spoon. We're offering real nourishment that adapts to modern life, without compromising on values or quality.”

Looking forward

Robinson says despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, he expects the breakfast foods market to continue growing. 

“Large category incumbents have recently lost market share to emerging better-for-you brands that offer the functional benefits consumers increasingly seek. We believe BFY brands will be key growth drivers in the category,” he predicts. “In this dynamic environment, agility is critical. Brands that can anticipate shifts and respond quickly will be best positioned to capture growth. Today’s consumers are more informed than ever—they’re reading nutrition labels, scrutinizing ingredient lists, and demanding transparency about what they’re putting into their bodies. This trend shows no signs of slowing, positioning brands with real ingredients and healthier offerings for long-term success.”

Abuelhiga believes there will be a continued split towards premium better-for-you or value products: “There needs to be space and opportunity for both types of consumers to interact with at the shelf. Protein will likely show up through product innovation across all types of categories to deliver consumers options that fit into their everyday lives.”

Additionally, eyes continue to be on costs associated with tariffs, she notes: “The chance that producers sourcing internationally turn domestic could wreak havoc on domestic supply chains and raise costs as demand surges.”

Barnstable says the category will continue to see growth in cleaner, more transparent options—especially those that are portable and snackable. “Breakfast is no longer a single moment in the day—[it’s] happening in backpacks, cars, and lunchboxes. Brands that understand that and offer real nourishment will continue to thrive,” she predicts. “The movement toward regenerative agriculture and upcycled ingredients is just getting started, and it’s one I care deeply about. There’s also this continued blurring of snack and breakfast, which is where I think our products, especially Little Crispies and Oat Granola, really shine. She adds that the brand will be debuting a new seasonal flavor this fall at Whole Foods, which uses real pumpkin.

Producers will need to wrangle with staying true to their values while navigating rising costs—no small feat, Barnstable relates: There’s pressure to cut corners, but I believe consumers can tell when something is made with intention versus made to just move product. Educating both shoppers and retailers on why real food sometimes comes with a slightly higher price tag is ongoing work, but it’s so important. We started Seven Sundays to bring real, nourishing food back to the breakfast aisle and we’ve never wavered from that. It’s encouraging to see more people choosing products that are better for their bodies, their kids, and the planet. We’re proud to be part of that shift and even more excited for what’s ahead.”